Caught between two worlds: Turkey as a hedger

The restrictive bandwagoning-balancing dichotomy is no longer helpful in explaining the security behaviour of secondary powers in a multipolar world. Instead of straightforward strategies, smaller states seek to engage in risk mitigation by implementing mixed approaches, concurrently adopting counteracting policies. This article analyses a paradigmatic shift in the security understanding of Turkey. Evaluated within Kuik’s analytical framework, Turkey, in recent years, has pursued a hedging strategy against Russia and the West. By adopting ‘economic-pragmatism’ and ‘dominance-denial’ in parallel with its quest for strategic autonomy, Ankara has sought the benefits of engaging with both great powers while mitigating potential risks. However, the catalytic impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War reduced uncertainty, and the moment picking a side becomes inevitable seems closer today than it had ever been since the end of the Cold War.