Shock-Responsive Energy Security Management and Macroeconomic Resilience in Import-Dependent Economies: A Hybrid Panel Quantile and Regret-Based Decision Framework

This study examines how energy-security shocks shape macroeconomic resilience in import-dependent economies and which energy-management strategies remain robust under alternative shock conditions. Using a balanced panel of 18 mainly European energy-importing economies and Türkiye for 2000–2024, the study constructs a Macroeconomic Resilience Index (MRI) from five dimensions: GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, current account balance, and industrial production growth. Inflation and unemployment are treated as inverse resilience indicators, and a Principal Component Analysis (PCA)-based alternative index is used as a robustness check. Methodologically, the study develops a hybrid framework that first applies a Shock-Augmented Cross-Sectionally Dependent Panel Quantile ARDL model to estimate heterogeneous shock effects across resilience levels, and then translates the econometric evidence into a Shock-Conditioned Bayesian Network–Regret MCDM model for strategy prioritization. The findings show that exchange-rate pressure is the most consistent long-run vulnerability channel, while energy intensity weakens resilience across short-run, benchmark, and quantile robustness results. The renewable energy share supports resilience under some conditions, but its effect depends on complementary investments in storage, grid flexibility, and demand-side capacity. Scenario results indicate that exchange-rate pressure produces the weakest resilience profile. The positive MRI value observed during combined-crisis years should be interpreted cautiously, as additional sensitivity evidence indicates that it mainly reflects the 2021–2022 post-pandemic rebound rather than a beneficial effect of shocks. Bayesian Network results identify macro-financial stabilization, import-dependency reduction, energy efficiency, and grid reliability as key resilience drivers. The regret-based MCDM results rank energy efficiency improvement as the most robust strategy, followed by energy import diversification. The study contributes by linking dynamic macroeconometric shock analysis with probabilistic scenario modeling and regret-sensitive decision support, offering an evidence-informed framework for prioritizing energy-security strategies in the sampled import-dependent economies.